Thursday, January 30, 2014

If you've been paying any sort of vague attention to the news recently, you'd find that Ukraine is up in flames. These are a result of new laws passed restricting speech and demonstrations, which the protestors claim are draconian and dictatorial. There are other factors, like how President Viktor Yanukovych is pro-Russia and many urban Ukrainian prefer stronger ties with the European Union.

Imagine for a moment waking up one morning and finding out we're at war with Russia over this. That Yanukovych appealed to Russia for help, who sent in troops, the rioters appealed to the EU and NATO, and we got pulled into it. I'm fairly certain most Americans would be completely surprised at this new development, and few would be prepared mentally for the battles ahead.

That's pretty much what happened to Europe in 1914. We're taught in schools that the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand is what initiated the whole war and the intricate web of alliances dragged every major power from a local conflict into a World War. But at the time of his death, Franz Ferdinand was just one headline amongst many, easily forgotten with foreign citizens only vaguely paying attention to, much like us and the situation in Syria or the recent bombings in Egypt. Terrible to be certain, but you don't believe for a moment that you're going to war over it. Hell, France was focused on the murder trial of a politician's wife. It was just celebrity news for them, much like how it is for us.

I find it crazy how governments can just send a whole nation to war without anyone really paying attention. Let's take the Iraq War. That seemed to sneak up on us; one moment we're trying to get bin Laden in Afghanistan and suddenly we're talking about WMDs in Iraq. But the Bush administration still had to work up to it; there were months whilst we talked with the UN and had inspectors looking for shit. This all literally happened in the space of a week. On July 23rd, Europe was at peace. On July 30th, half the continent was at war.

So when people say this country or that country isn't gonna go to war because of economic ties or the citizenry won't accept it or MAD , I pull out WWI: Europe was deeply entrenched in globalization, and many people were saying no great war could happen because it would fuck everything up (which it did). Britain's voters had no interest in the war at all, so the politicians had to figure a way to convince them. Germany thought Britain wouldn't enter because it would destroy their fleet and make the US the greatest sea power. They were partially right; the war completely destroyed the armies of practically every participant except America.

It's kinda scary how we're at peace and think there are hindrances to a general war, this shit could happen again even though it's an incredibly stupid idea. The last general war before WWI was the Napoleonic, a hundred years prior. The 100-year anniversary of the start of WWI is this July. Who knows; perhaps a new one would be on the horizon.

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