Even during the height of the Cold War, I'm fairly certain Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, or whoever could take consolation that the US was never, ever going to invade Russia. It was just something that isn't done. Tchaikovsky even composed a song about why it's so stupid. The country is huge with little means of supplies in between major urban centers. It's hot as fuck in the summer. It's fucking freezing in the winter. And in between those extremes the roads are so muddy whole vehicles can get sunk in them. And Russia knows this. Their plan of attack is just to retreat and pull their enemy into their hinterland so deep that the supply column can't keep up and the land itself overtakes them.
So why did Hitler try it? Oddly enough he did study Napoleon's attempt very thoroughly, so he knew the possible consequences. It's just in between the Napoleonic Wars and World War II, one major event changed the world view of Russia: World War I. They did fucking terrible. Their army was shit and didn't have enough munitions. And even if they did, it was often outdated or they didn't have trained personnel to work the artillery or planes or whatever. Germany's plan in World War I was to basically send their entire army to France and take it out before Russia could appear on their Eastern Front. Unfortunately for Germany, Russia showed up faster than they anticipated. Fortunately for Germany, the tiny forces they did leave in Prussia completely wiped out the Russian Second Army in one night. Russia was so completely unprepared for World War I, they couldn't feed the population. Revolution happened and communism took over.
In 1939 the Soviet Union invaded Finland and although they eventually won, they did absolutely horribly in that war. It should've been an easy job; it's fucking Finland! I've never heard of them doing anything substantial militarily since the Vikings. How could the Soviet Union, whose army was three times the size of Finland's, do so poorly? Stalin had purged most of the army of its high command in his paranoia, the only people left were yes-men without much skill.
So Hitler looks at this and thinks the Soviets may have the numbers and the land, but in reality their governmental and military structure is weak. If he could just deliver a blow similar to what happened in World War I, he could topple the entire regime and win. Plus Germany's in a much stronger position; by the time Hitler invaded he had already taken out most of his opponents in Western Europe. The German army seemed unstoppable.
The end result was completely atrocious. More soldiers died on the Eastern Front of the Second World War than the rest of the war put together. You can include all the shit happening in the Pacific and D-Day and it still would not compare to the crazy shit happening in Russia. And who knows what would've happened if Germany hadn't fought the Soviets? Their troops wouldn't've been bled dry and the Soviets would've still been on the Axis side, meaning the US and UK would've had to fight Germany AND the USSR.
But these hypothetical scenarios probably wouldn't've happened: If you read Mein Kampf, it's pretty clear Hitler was planning on invading Russia as early as the 1920s. I suppose the real questions we should be asking is if Hitler was a better military commander (he as far from a genius), could he have actually done it? Could the Russian behemoth actually be tamed? If he had headed straight to Moscow instead of focusing on the Ukraine, would he have won in 1941 before the Soviets could get their shit together? Or would the truism of Russia still stand: his supply train would be impossible to maintain and the German troops could never capture the Russian army? Who knows, but I don't think anyone's gonna try it any time soon.
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